Secretary of State Antony Blinken is still in China, and the messages have been mixed. It was all about symbolism, which is appropriate in this first meeting between the two administrations. Expectations were set very low, and so far, that have been no surprises.
- Good news — Xi Jinping did a photo op with Blinken. This was a positive sign.
- Bad news — The military hotline is still offline and likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future.
I am focusing on the failure to get the military communications links back online. I am concerned.
Easy to offer, Big symbolism.
The Chinese should have been ready for this ask, and quite frankly it should have been very easy for the Chinese to say yes to.
- Outsized symbolism
- Parity with the US
- Communications / Dialogue oriented
- Not a game changer
- Super spinnable.
If this is not handled within 6 months, it should be a significant risk data point.
At this point it is no longer another overlooked item on the post-Covid To-Do list. Blinken has made it a central issue, so now we have a practical metric by which to gauge the relationship.
Actually, there has been a hotline structure in place since 2008, but the Chinese have never been fans. Hotlines are quick, non-communal, and trust based. That’s not the way the Chinese military operates. The Chinese defense minister famously decided not to take a call from Sec of Defense Lloyd Austin after the US shot down the Chinese surveillance balloon in February. Since then, there have been a number of near collisions between PLA and US/Euro crafts.
One thing that has not been discussed much is the internal structure of Xi Jinping’s government. Western observers tend to assume that the CCP is monolithic in thought and action, but in fact the Chinese government is just as dynamic and unruly as any other. It’s notoriously difficult to know who is responsible for decisions and what the true motivations are. We have to be careful not to assume too much about Chinese policy in general, and its military operations in particular.
Signals about Signals
The good news is that we know the bad news. If anything useful comes from Sec. of State Blinken’s visit, it may be that now we have a proxy by which to judge the US-China relationship.
Positive indicators: The CCP’s People’s Daily was generally positive about the visit, and stressed that more high-level meetings would follow. The Chinese side could signal that they are looking for an improvement in the relationship by treating the hotline as a minor issue that is easily rectified. It would be easy to control the messaging, and it does not change the situation on the ground one bit. If both sides treat the hotline issue as just another element in complex but stable relationship, it is a positive sign about the future.
Negative indicators: There are two responses that might signal more risks to the relationship. First, China could continue to ignore the entire matter. Now that Blinken has raised the issue so publicly, the ball is in China’s court. If they imperiously ignore a request to continue using a system that has been in place since 2008, it is definitely a bad sign. On the other hand, if they use this as an opportunity to raise old grievances or prosecute their claims about Taiwan, it sends similarly bad signs about the future trajectory of the relationship.
A Powerful Empty Gesture
Both Beijing and Washington are masters of symbolism, and we will be able to gauge the future of the relationship by how they handle this largely empty gesture. In negotiation, we often look for deal-points like the military hotline that are cheap to offer but expensive to receive. If the Chinese want to offer the US a purely symbolic compromise, then this would be it. But a decision by the Chinese not to compromise on this high-profile issue should be taken as a pretty clear indicator that the relationship is still deteriorating.